Sick of the Overbay apologists

I've been thinking about starting a Jays blog for a while. For one to slow down my FB/TWitter rants on them. For two because I am hugely invested and like talking about them. But why tonight? Because of a fairly infuriating article I read on DrunkJaysFans. Now, I love DrunkJaysFans blog. I read it daily. But today they decided to write defending Overbay on a night he made two errors and went 0-4 with two strikeouts. That doesn't sit well with me. They point at his numbers from last year -- a year he didn't play vs Lefties and still managed to be 11th out of 14 AL regular first basemen. He just isn't that good!

Why is it that it was completely fine for this same blog to shit all over Vernon Wells all last year. To completely write him off and spew hate at him neverending. But it isn't ok for Jays fans to boo Overbay?

Jays fans booing Overbay is a good sign. It shows we give a fuck. And actually, this first post is basically designed to show why Jays fans should be right pissed off that Overbay is being given so much rope.

Here goes:

To put into context why Jays fans need to be fed up with Overbay's play and Cito's refusal to sit him or move him down in the order here is a somewhat ominous look at what is to come with Snider out and Edwin "Easy E" Encarnacion up. We have a few options... what I think Cito is going to do is:

LF - Lewis
2B - Hill
DH - Lind
CF - Wells
1B - Overbay
SS - A Gon
RF - Bautista
C - Buck
3B - Encarnacion

But what I wish he would do is vs RH pitching:

LF - Lewis
2B - Hill
DH - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Bautista
1B - Overbay
SS - Gonzalez
3B - Encarnacion
C - Buck

vs LH pitching:

RF - Lewis
2B - Hill
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
1B - Bautista
SS - Gonzalez
3B - Encarnacion
C - Buck
DH - Ruiz



Fred Lewis: I love Freddie. Toronto loves Freddie. But Freddie is slugging way over his career slugging. The good news is, he is also not getting on base as much. So while he likely isn't going to be the RBI/Extra Base guy he has been. He isn't going to be why we come back down to earth when and if we do.

Aaron Hill: Did you know that despite Aaron Hill hitting nearly 100 points below his career average, his OBP remains 15 points below his career average? Hill is doing one thing very well this year, and that is drawing walks. It actually is the one aspect of the game he's sucked at his entire career. I believe last year was a landslide career year. I'd be surprised if Hill ever hits 30 homers again. But if he could eventually get his average up at say 275-280 with tons of extra base hits, 20 homer power, and a 360ish OBP we are looking at Toronto's very own Dustin Pedroia. So yes, I am saying that Hill is one of the reasons we have a chance to stay in the hunt.

Adam Lind: Lind is a mystery to me. I thought perhaps Cito's grip it and rip it if you like it approach was the problem. But turns out he is seeing essentially the same amount of pitchers per AB this year as he was last year. Though he seems to be swinging at many more bad pitches. He should come around, but I'm not really seeing signs of it. Ideally we wouldn't have to wait this out with him in the 3 hole. But we do.

Vernon Wells: This guy is smoking hot and I don't see it ending anytime soon. Wells is actually having better plate discipline this year than at any point of his career. He's using all fields, and his bat speed is as good as it has ever been. Yeah I predicted 30/100 BUT largely due to his spot in the order. The only problem I see with Wells is the guy batting after him...

LYLE OVERPAID: Our situation is not unlike that of Boston with Ortiz. You just have to believe if you give Overbay the at bats he is going to get his average up and start hitting some doubles and a few jacks. Problem is, we are already believing that with two better players in Hill/Lind who occupy 2 of our top 4 spots. Cito's stubborn approach is about to kill us. I for one hope that with Easy E coming off the DL today that Bautista will slide across the diamond and start taking time away from Overbay. Bare minimum, he needs to be DRRRRRRRRRR-oppppppppppped (Beastie Boys style) in that lineup.

Alex Gonzalez: Guess what? Alex Gonzalez is about to drop off. That isn't news. But you know... I am starting to believe it won't be as bad as it could be. Here's 2 reasons why:

1. Alex Gonzalez actually had great success last year in limited at bats in Boston. 150 at bats is enough to at least look at what he is doing now and last year and wonder if he has a better understanding of the type of hitter he is later in his career. Actually, sort of like Scutaro though the two are totally different players.

2. Cito Gaston's strong suit is getting the most out of his hitters and the whole find your pitch and be aggressive approach is made for Gonzalez.

I just wish he was in the 8 hole.

Jose Bautista: It is only beginning for Bautista. See I saw a few projections this year that had Bau up around 25 homers. The guy has legit power and actually a very strong idea of the strikezone. His career OBP isn't sparkling. But people forget his career average is 239. All of a sudden a 331 OBP isn't bad. I mean if Aaron Hill and his career average of 281 had an OBP of 381... he'd be one of the best hitters in the game. Bautista this year might just be a poor man's Raul Ibanez. 245-250 with 25 homers and 90 RBIS is what I'm projecting. This bad man should be our #5 hitter until Cito decides to move Snider up there.

John Buck: Buck is part of the bad news. While I believe his career stats show he might hit 18-20 homers this year. He is about to collapse in a big big way. Thankfully, Cito actually has him way down in the order so we won't feel it that much.

Edwin Encarnacion: Who knows... my guess is as good as yours. But I am certain he isn't going to produce nearly as effectively as Snider was.

Conclusion: Our lineup without Snider and with Hill/Lind continuing to struggle cannot withstand Overbay playing everyday and batting 5th. Mark my words, Overbay will be the death of us if we keep on trotting him out there.